Shock and awe or incentive-compatible harm reduction? Graphic health warnings on tobacco packages

Table 5 Robustness checks, segmented regression

	Canada Production	Canada Sales, Tax	Canada Smoking prevalence, Tax	US sales	Dynamic effects, Canada Sales	Dynamic effects, Canada Prevalence	Canada sales, 1999–2004	Canada sales, 1999–2004	Canada sales, 1999–2004
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
GHW effect (level)	− 0.037	− 0.048	− 0.823	0.011				− 0.030	− 0.009
	(0.046)	(0.030)	(1.618)	(0.018)				(0.062)	(0.053)
GHW effect (Slope)	0.000	0.002	0.133	0.000					0.007
	(0.003)	(0.002)	(0.117)	(0.001)					(0.005)
GHW effect (level, 1 year post)					− 0.018	0.553
					(0.046)	(1.547)
GHW effect (Level, 2 years post)					0.077	3.502*
					(0.062)	(1.860)
GHW effect (Level, 3 years post)					0.086	− 0.106
					(0.054)	(2.139)
GHW effect (Slope, 1 year post)					− 0.004	− 0.631*
					(0.008)	(0.320)
GHW effect (Slope, 2 years post)					− 0.012	0.518
					(0.011)	(0.378)
GHW effect (Slope, 3 years post)					0.018	0.208
					(0.012)	(0.426)
Cigarette tax		− 0.311***	0.935
		(0.054)	(2.500)
Cigarette price	− 0.356**			− 0.091*	− 0.264	6.720	− 0.435***	− 0.484***	− 0.663***
	(0.148)			(0.049)	(0.305)	(10.808)	(0.138)	(0.174)	(0.181)
Unemployment rate	− 0.009	0.006	0.020	− 0.009	0.005	1.897	− 0.037	− 0.021	− 0.012
	(0.030)	(0.020)	(1.045)	(0.007)	(0.023)	(1.306)	(0.031)	(0.040)	(0.038)
Alcohol price	0.020	0.011	− 0.040	0.002	0.007	− 0.273	0.040***	0.037***	0.021
	(0.016)	(0.012)	(0.426)	(0.004)	(0.013)	(0.465)	(0.013)	(0.014)	(0.019)
R²	0.68	0.85	0.65	0.94	0.85	0.69	0.60	0.60	0.81
N	131	131	66	191	131	66	71	71	71

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