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Table 2 Time series modeling of age-standardized first-time offense rates for heroin and methamphetamine, from 2001 to 2017 in Taiwan

From: The impact of Taiwan’s implementation of a nationwide harm reduction program in 2006 on the use of various illicit drugs: trend analysis of first-time offenders from 2001 to 2017

Parameters in the parsimonious model

Coefficient estimate

Standard error

t‐statistic

P value

First-time offense rate for heroin

 Intercept (β0)

75.86

4.63

16.38

 < .0001

 Baseline slope (β1)

− 3.25

0.74

− 4.42

0.001

 Level change after intervention (β2)

− 22.37

7.91

− 2.83

0.01

 β2/β1

6.88

   

First-time offense rate for methamphetamine

 Intercept (β0)

39.21

3.69

10.62

 < .0001

 Baseline slope (β1)

0.66

0.36

1.83

0.09

First-time offense rate for ecstasy

 Intercept (β0)

16.91

2.01

8.42

 < .0001

 Baseline slope (β1)

− 0.77

0.20

− 3.92

0.001

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Harm Reduction Journal

ISSN: 1477-7517