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Table 3 Time series modeling of age-standardized first-time offense rates for heroin from 2001 to 2017 in Taiwan, separately for five age groups

From: The impact of Taiwan’s implementation of a nationwide harm reduction program in 2006 on the use of various illicit drugs: trend analysis of first-time offenders from 2001 to 2017

Parameters in the parsimonious model

Coefficient estimate

Standard error

t‐statistic

P value

Age group 18–24 years old

 Intercept (β0)

14.31

0.76

18.85

 < .0001

 Baseline slope (β1)

− 0.51

0.12

− 4.24

0.001

 Level change after intervention (β2)

− 6.17

1.30

− 4.76

0.00

 β21

12.10

   

Age group 25–29 years old

 Intercept (β0)

19.54

1.12

17.51

 < .0001

 Baseline slope (β1)

− 0.75

0.18

− 4.24

0.001

 Level change after intervention (β2)

− 7.97

1.91

− 4.18

0.00

 β21

10.63

   

Age group 30–39 years old

 Intercept (β0)

27.76

1.82

15.24

 < .0001

 Baseline slope (β1)

− 1.26

0.29

− 4.35

0.001

 Level change after intervention (β2)

− 7.06

3.11

− 2.27

0.04

 β21

5.60

   

Age group 40–49 years old

 Intercept (β0)

11.64

0.95

12.22

 < .0001

 Baseline slope (β1)

− 0.59

0.15

− 3.88

0.002

 Level change after intervention (β2)

− 1.27

1.63

− 0.78

0.45

Age group 50–59 years old

 Intercept (β0)

2.60

0.26

10.15

 < .0001

 Baseline slope (β1)

− 0.14

0.04

− 3.41

0.004

 Level change after intervention (β2)

0.09

0.44

0.22

0.83